US presidential elections2016 poll tracker: LatestDonald Trump and HillaryClinton figures andforecasts
The clash between Donald Trump and
Hillary Clinton is set to be brutal,
with America being dominated by the
race to replace Barack Obama in the White
House.
Until election day on 8 November, follow
our poll tracker to keep on track on with
who's top. It takes an average of the last five
polls published on RealClearPolitics.
19 May 2016 was the first timethat Republican Donald Trump pulled ahead
of Democrat Hillary Clinton in the average of
national polls. He was 0.2 percentage points
ahead of Clinton on May 22, leading to some
claiming "it's probably time to panic" -
although the next poll put Clinton back
ahead.
Clinton had held a lengthy double-digit lead
over Trump, who was once a Republican
outsider. This has been eroded by the
popularity of Trump, although it has
somewhat opened up again after she secured
a pledge to work together from her
Democrat rival, Senator Bernie Sanders.
Trump's polling had previously drawn close
to Clinton's during last October, as
his appearance on Saturday Night Live
coincided with Clinton facing pressure in a
trial on the deaths of four Americans in
Libya in 2012.
Following a series of gaffes by Trump, the
Republican nominee has seen Clinton get
ahead in the polls again, now maintaining
around a six point lead.
A word of caution, however: polling so far
away from the election is unlikely to be
reflective of the final score. A lot can
change.
At this stage of the race in 2004, as Nate
Silver notes , John Kerry had a similar lead
over George W Bush as Clinton's current lead
over Trump.
The New York Times has also worked out
that, at the the convention stage, a simple
polling average has differed from the final
result by about nine percentage points. So,
with the polls being so close, anything could
still happen.
Why are the US election polls so
close?
One of the reasons that the polls had been
closing is that the Republicans were
rallying behind Trump. This has since been
put under jeopardy, as a couple of big party
figures refused to endorse the nominee.
Meanwhile, a recent YouGov poll
showed that just over half of supporters
of Bernie Sanders - Clinton's Democratic
rival - would back Clinton.
Sanders also polled better against Trump
than Clinton, while he was still in the
race. 61 per cent of his backers viewed Mrs
Clinton unfavourably, while 72 per cent say
she is "not honest and trustworthy".
Despite this, Sanders has pledged his support
for the victorious Democrat nominee ,
saying: "This campaign is not about Hillary
Clinton, Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders or
any other candidate who is standing for
president. This campaign is about the needs
of the American people."
Still, Clinton holds a big demographic
advantage over Trump. A Washington Post
poll indicated that 69 per cent of non-
whites and 52 per cent women favour
Clinton, while 57 per cent of whites and men
support Trump.
What about the American states?
When it comes to the final presidential race ,
the Democrat and Republican candidates will
go head to head to win the 50 American
states. Each state has a certain number of
electoral college votes based on population.
This system matters, as the popular vote is
less important than the electoral college vote.
If Clinton's campaign is buoyed by big
Democratic states such as New York, New
Jersey, Illinois and California, these populous
states could lead her to victory.
For example, in 2008, Barack Obama won 53
per cent of the vote - but this led to 68 per
cent of the electoral college vote. Such highly
populated states played a large role when
they backed the current president.
Swing states - states that regularly switch
between Democrat and Republican between
elections - are also important.
States like Arizona, Florida, North
Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia have the
power to swing the election. So far, neither
Trump nor Clinton has a significant lead in
these crucial states.
Republican primaries map: How
Trump won over the Republicans
Democrat primaries map: How
Clinton held onto the Democrats
What are the odds on the American
presidential election?
It has long been said of predicting sporting
outcomes that the bookies don’t get it far
wrong, working out probabilities with
complicated mathematics based on the
choices of their thousands of paying punters.
After last year’s surprise General Election
result, many political followers have lost
faith in pollsters and prefer to look at the
odds to predict the future.
Hillary Clinton has been odds-on favourite
since the end of February, but Trump has
steadily caught her up as his Republican
rivals dropped out. Last July he was a 25/1
shot while Hillary was already at evens.
Ladbroke's latest odds for the next US
president are:
Follorw Telegraph News
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